UPD8

Killer Flu

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Type: Activity
Learning Strategy: Data work
Topic: Infectious disease

This topic has become "hot" again with the outbreak of H5N1 avian flu in Suffolk.
160,000 turkeys have been culled in a so-far unexplained outbreak of H5N1 bird flu. This shows the problem is not going away.

It is possible that avian flu will transfer to humans. This has happened before, and UK authorities are preparing in case H5N1 crosses over to humans.

So far, 12 people have died of bird flu in Egypt.

Page 1 has been added to this activity to take account of the current situation.

Teachers' notes for the other three pages of the activity follow below:

Flu can be lethal. The 1918 pandemic killed 50 million people. The virus responsible has now been isolated. Scientists are studying what made it so deadly. But what if it escaped? Could we be protected? In this numeracy activity, pupils compare the death tolls in vaccinated and non-vaccinated populations.

Published: 20th January 2005
Reviews & Comments: 13

Learning objectives

Pupils will develop their numeracy in a scientific context and will appreciate the value of immunisation.

Try the activity

• February 07 teachers notes
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• February 07 activity sheet
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You will need Acrobat Reader installed to open the activity sheets.

Curriculum link

Running the activity

Timing: starter - 5 minutes; main - 15 minutes; plenary - 5 minutes

Starter activity: Pupils can describe symptoms of their worst flu attack and suggest how they might have caught it. The virus is spread chiefly by airborne droplets. Close contact between people in buses, trains and school classrooms increases the likelihood of the virus spreading. Most viruses are shed in the first 3 days of the illness.

Main activity: Page 1 is a stimulus page to be projected. It sets the scene and presents the pupil task. The virus that caused the 1918 flu pandemic has escaped from a lab. Pupils need to help the Health Protection Agency assess the problem. They must learn how a virus spreads and make predictions about death rates with and without mass vaccination.
Page 2 provides all the data needed for the calculations.
This can be projected, or photocopied for each group. Each student will need their own copy of Page 3. It provides a structured template to help them set out their figures.

Teachers may wish to point out that figures like these can only be used to make short-term predictions. Eventually there are no new contacts left in a population. Most people who come into contact with a carrier have immunity already, so the spread of the disease will eventually peter out.

Plenary: Pupils could discuss the problems a flu pandemic would cause. Disposal of so many bodies could be a problem. When BSE hit British farms, the corpses of infected cows were burned in open fires to destroy the virus. Would this be an appropriate way of disposing of infected human corpses?
The figures used in the case study have been simplified to make the calculations more manageable. On average, a flu sufferer will infect only 2 other people. The disease spreads so quickly because each of these new sufferers can infect 2 more people after 3 days. The total mortality in the 1918 flu pandemic was 0.5% of the population. 2% of the people who were infected died. The death rate was highest in the very young and the very old. Mortality was much higher in places where the population had less natural immunity. In Samoa, 25% died and in Alaska, 50% of Eskimos died.
Immunisation only gives total protection from the strains of virus it is designed to combat. It could reduce the chance of a new virus causing an infection, but only if that virus was fairly similar to those expected to be in circulation. The flu jab protects against 3 different strains and only 1 or 2 circulate each year. Usually there is a good match between the vaccine and the strains people are exposed to. Partial immunity would cause a reduction in flu symptoms so it would also reduce the death rate.

Web links

News links

BBC Health News

1918 killer flu secrets revealed

How Stuff Works

How flu works.

World Health Organisation

WHO Influenza Pandemic Preparedness plan

Yahoo

The news story of February 07

Yahoo

The news of the death of the Egyptian girl from bird flu

Reviews & Comments

Write your online review to share your feedback and classroom tips with other teachers. How well does it work, how engaging is it, how did you use it, and how could it be improved?

Killer Flu review

Feb 9th, 2010

This is my first time of using this resource from the fit back i will b e able to give more review but i like the illustrations because it speaks several teaching languages

Reviewer: cynthia akwen

Ross Flynn, Brighton

Nov 28th, 2009

Wonderful article

Reviewer: Ross Flynn

Killer Flu review

May 12th, 2009

idea could be adapted for swine flu

Reviewer: yasin ahmed

Killer flu

Feb 7th, 2009

I used this a couple of weeks ago with one of the most challenging groups I have ever had in a lesson that SLT were watching. They managed to carry out the activity and the lesson was rated good. A big relief and a good indicator that I am going to use these sort of pupil centred activities a lot more.

Reviewer: Julian Rouse

execellent activities

Nov 3rd, 2008

as a new teacher i find most of the activities really helpful.

Reviewer: viji varghese

Killer Flu review

Oct 6th, 2008

Students enjoyed the activity and it linked rather well to the tasks we moved onto next. Made a difference using something other than the tried, tested and formulaic activities from our current scheme of work. It did require breaking down for the low ability group it was tested on. Still a hit.

Reviewer: mike mcnicholas

Killer Flu

May 8th, 2008

I have used this several times with level 2 and 3 vocational classes linking to 'Science is the Media' - for them the calculations activity is particularly useful

Reviewer: Sarah McLusky

8C Microbes & Disease

May 7th, 2008

Used this with top set year 8 group. They enjoyed the activity and it demonstrated the use of vaccination well. Some students did have a few problems with the calculations but once we'd worked through them they all completed it well. A nice activity.

Reviewer: Lucy Griffiths

Microbes and disease

Mar 11th, 2008

used with generally low mixed age group who found the whole idea quite exciting and stayed engaged throughout. They found the maths quite challenging even though it is really quite straightforward. writing their own conclusion gave them a chance to express their ideas and gave me an opportunity for writted feedback. Thanks to the team.

Reviewer: Jennifer Mayer

visual content.

Jan 31st, 2008

found the cartoons excellent for stimulating other methods of transmission of disease. encouraged pupils to design their own cartoons.

Reviewer: eileen shone

Microbes

Oct 11th, 2007

I tried this with a fairly able set of year 8 students. It was very sucessful although some students struggled with the calculations. However, the activity was great for showing the importance of vaccination in a real life senario.

Reviewer: Stuart Fawell

Killer Flu

Feb 7th, 2006

Used this as an extended starter for Y10 Humans (Disease). It worked well for lower ability groups. Pages were shown on an interactive white board and on handouts. It added an extra dimension to the module.

Reviewer: Naomi Shelmerdine

Killer Flu

Jul 14th, 2005

I tried this activity with a very low ability year 8 class, so the maths presented a hurdle to accessing the message. However, after a crash course in how to work out percentages on their calculators and with me leading them through each step explaining carefully as we went, they completed the two tables for infection and death rates without and with vaccination.
The numbers are an extremely good way of emphasising the benefits of vaccination and the pupils had a sense of achievement in working out the final answers. It is obviously also a good exercise for handling data and numbers.
I will definately use it again.
Paula Kidd. Priesthorpe School, Leeds.

Reviewer: Paula Kidd